Monsoon rainfall deficit at 6% below normal

New Delhi, Sep 25 All India cumulative rainfall deficit until September 24 stands at 6 per cent below normal compared with 8 per cent below normal last week with two out of the four regions receiving below normal rainfall, says a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

While northwestern India (2 per cent above normal) and central India (normal) received above normal and normal rainfall respectively, South Peninsula (9 per cent below normal) and eastern and northeastern regions (17 per cent below normal) have witnessed deficient rainfall.

The overall rainfall deficiency has come down in September after surplus rainfall received during the month.

Rainfall this month stood at 17% above normal as of September 23.

The monsoon’s turnaround after the driest August in 122 years has eased inflationary pressures in food, though El Nino concerns persist, the report said.

Kharif sowing as of September 23 stands at 0.3 per cent higher than last year. The area under paddy cultivation is now 2.7 per cent higher than last year. However, the area under pulses is still 4.6 per cent lower than last year (which is better than -5.2 per cent YoY last week).

Production of jute, cotton and oilseeds is also lower. Coarse cereals (1.3 per cent YoY) and sugarcane (7.6 per cent YoY) continue to do well.

Deficient rainfall, and consequently lower rice and pulses sowing, has pushed prices higher. Rice constitutes around 4.4 per cent and pulses has a weight of 6 per cent in the overall CPI basket.

As of September 21, water reservoir levels stood at 71 per cent of the live storage capacity which is lower than the previous five years’ average of 82 per cent.

Deficient rainfall would have an impact on the groundwater and reservoir levels that would adversely impact rabi sowing, the report said.